Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
